Our Work
Projects
The politics of vigilantism in Mexico
Study funded by the NSF Law & Social Sciences directorate to describe and test interventions to reduce support for harsh, extrajudicial responses to crime in Mexico
📄 Moral reasoning and support for punitive violence after crime📄 The limits of deliberation: A field experiment on criminal justice preferences in Mexico
Women’s political participation
Study funded by the Center for Effective Global Action to test an intervention to increase refugee’s access to land in northern Uganda
Youth resilience in Colombia
Study funded by the Center for Effective Global Action to evaluate an psycho-social and employment intervention among youth in low-income communities
Tolerant civic engagement in Ethiopia
Study funded by USAID on ethnic tolerance, civic engagement, and governance in Ethiopia
📄 Two Dilemmas in the Politics of Ethnic Federalism: Experimental Evidence From Ethiopia
Synthesis of new research on consequences of displacement
Study funded by The World Bank to assess and compile new evidence on the causes and consequences of displacement
📄 Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies
Extralegal responses to crime in Guatemala
Study funded by the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) to explore citizens’ attitudes towards and experiences with crime, insecurity, and the state
📄 State Absence, Vengeance, and the Logic of Vigilantism in Guatemala
Reintegration of former fighters in Colombia
Study funded by Innovations for Poverty Action to identify barriers to the reintegration of former combatants into civilian life
Asking about violence: Improving ethics in violence research
Study funded by the Innovations for Poverty Action Peace & Recovery program, the NSF Ethical & Responsible Research (ER2) directorate, and the Innovations for Poverty Action Intimate Partner Violence program to measure how well current practices in measuring political violence adhere to ethical principles and develop a methodological toolkit for measuring violence ethically
Causes and consequences of election violence: A global subnational analysis
Study funded by the Hellman Foundation to test the generalizability of theories about how electoral violence is targeted and how it affects political outcomes like vote share and turnout
Publications
Davis, B., Dow, D.A., Springman, J. and Tellez, J.F., 2026. Two Dilemmas in the Politics of Ethnic Federalism: Experimental Evidence From Ethiopia. Journal of Conflict Resolution, p.00220027261427753.
Abstract
Ethnic federalism, a system that devolves power to subnational states drawn along ethnic lines, is a widely debated approach to managing ethnic conflict. While scholars have studied its macro-level consequences, little is known about micro-level preferences within these countries. We examine two key dilemmas of ethnic federalism: (1) the “minorities within minorities dilemma”, where many ethnic group members live outside their designated state, and (2) the “devolution dilemma,” which concerns which powers should be held by the central versus state governments. Using survey experiments among Ethiopian university students, we find no average effect of changing power distributions on support for ethnic federalism, but substantial heterogeneity: politically and ethnically intolerant respondents respond strongly to devolving state power. We further find security policy is the primary concern in debates over devolution, followed by cultural policies. Our findings highlight the importance of micro-level perspectives in understanding the stability of ethnofederal systems and the political consequences of their reform.
Davis, B., 2026. The Left–Right Divide in Democratic Disappointment and Support for Populists in Europe. Government and Opposition, 61, p.e2.
Abstract
Past research on populist supporters’ democratic orientations suggests that populist voters believe in democracy but are dissatisfied with how it is being implemented. However, this research has not adequately grappled with variation in the type of democracy citizens support or the left–right orientations of populists. Using the tenth wave of the European Social Survey (2020–2022), I distinguish between respondents’ feelings about how well their country lives up to the liberal aspects of democracy (including minority rights, media freedom, pluralism, etc.) and the aspects of democracy related to popular sovereignty (rule by the people, referenda, etc.). All populist supporters are disappointed in their countries’ performance relative to popular sovereignty, while only left-populist supporters are disappointed in their countries’ liberal performance.
Miner, M., 2025. Strategic disruptions: The subnational targeting of internet shutdowns in India. Journal of Peace Research, 62(6), pp.2033-2051.
Abstract
Since 2016, governments in 77 countries have implemented 1,118 internet shutdowns, revealing a growing trend in the use of ‘digital repression’. Governments often justify these shutdowns as necessary for public safety and applied impartially in response to security threats. Focusing on India, the country that has enacted the most shutdowns globally, this article explores whether shutdowns instead follow a logic of targeting political opponents, and how they compare with traditional forms of physical repression. The results align with a theory of strategic political targeting as shutdowns are predominantly executed in areas with lower ruling party support, following opposition violence, and prior to escalations in military violence. This pattern differs significantly from that of physical repression, revealing that internet shutdowns are a unique and politically motivated tool used by those in power to suppress opposition and facilitate state-sanctioned violence.
Davis, B. and Huang, Y.S., 2025. Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy. Electoral Studies, 96, p.102961.
Abstract
Do monarchs unify? This article is the first to test whether monarchs promote unity by increasing national pride and decreasing political animus (affective polarization). Using two waves of an original survey experiment on thousands of British participants, we show that priming respondents to think favorably of the monarchy increased feelings of national pride and indirectly reduced affective polarization. Surprisingly however, this effect is only found when measuring affective polarization using social distance and not feeling thermometer items. This suggests that the monarchy has the capacity to reduce feelings of hostility towards fellow countrymen but may not reduce hostility towards political parties. In exploratory analyses we also found treatment increased respondents’ conviction that Scotland and Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK, also mediated by national pride. Our results recommend monarchies in democracies as a promising field for future research by political scientists.
Baron, H., García-Ponce, O., Olmos Camarillo, J., Young, L.E. and Zeitzoff, T., 2025. Moral reasoning and support for punitive violence after crime. Journal of Peace Research, 62(3), pp.660-674.
Abstract
In contexts marked by high violence and widespread impunity, how do citizens articulate and justify their preferences about crime and punishment? What kind of moral logic and reasoning do they employ when discussing punishments? Does support for punitive punishment derive from moralistic and deontological concerns that perpetrators need to be punished because it is right and proper? Or do people support punitive punishments because they feel they are effective? To address this question, we document and analyze stated preferences for punishment in response to crime from 62 in-depth qualitative interviews with individuals affected by violence in the Mexican state of Michoacán. We conduct a quantitative analysis of how different forms of moral justifications are related to preferred punishments for specific crime events, and a qualitative content analysis to investigate possible mechanisms. We find that two types of moral reasoning are more likely to be used to justify punitive violence: (1) consequentialist reasoning which involves weighing the costs and benefits of an action; (2) and reasoning that dehumanizes accused criminals. Deontological justifications about the right or just action, while extremely common, are used fairly equally across arguments for and against punitive violence. Our study sheds light on the diverse moral frames employed to justify the endorsement of punitive violence.
Abstract
Why do ordinary people participate in risky and aversive acts of intergroup violence? We focus on three explanations in this chapter. First, we describe how ingroup identities, attitudes, and preferences might drive participation in intergroup violence, focusing especially on identity fusion and parochial altruism. Second, we discuss the link between dehumanization and participation in violence. Finally, we consider automatic thinking as a potential individual explanation for participation in violence. Throughout these sections, we highlight examples of four recent innovations. First, recent studies and meta-analyses have begun to bring group-level characteristics back into the political psychology literature on violence. Second, new research has begun taking selection into violence more seriously at various levels. Third, several studies have begun to move beyond post-treatment measures of psychological states and traits to better identify the causes of participation in violence. Finally, there have been advances in methods to adhere to ethical principles when studying violence.
Liu, H., Stewart, A. and Tellez, J., 2025. Economic Subversion in Civil Wars: Evidence from the Colombian Armed Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 69(4), p.sqaf084.
Abstract
Rebel groups, often too weak to defeat the state in direct combat, adopt strategies to erode its capacity and resolve. One important class of such tactics—what we call economic subversion—is attacks that disrupt economic activity and impose large costs on the state, elites, and civilians. We conceptualize economic subversion as an umbrella class of rebel tactics that disrupt “business as usual,” regardless of whether economic harm is the primary motive. This approach helps connect related concepts in the literature, including looting, sabotage, and other tactics. We further theorize that the economic value of a locale should incentivize rebel subversion, while state fortification efforts should deter it, and test our concept using historical data from the Colombian armed conflict. On the incentive side, we show that rebels are more likely to engage in economic subversion in municipalities important to internal trade, especially during formal negotiations with the state. On the deterrent side, we f ind mixed, inconclusive evidence via a difference-in-difference design that a large-scale policing effort failed to deter rebel subversion. These findings highlight the substantial leeway rebels have to inflict painful economic costs on the state.
Joseph, A.N., Sediqe, N.A. and Tellez, J.F., 2025. Who Should Benefit from Group-Based Quotas? Experimental Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 17(2), pp.258-282.
Abstract
Group-based quotas and affirmative action policies are common in many parts of the world. A large literature has focused on public debates over the perceived fairness of these policies. Yet in highly diverse countries, debates often centre on which groups should benefit and how to establish who counts as a member of those groups. We know comparatively little about these kinds of debates. In this article, we present new experimental evidence on public preferences over targeted race quotas in Brazil, a country where racial identity is famously ambiguous and where substantial controversy over the use of race quotas in university admissions remains. Placing respondents from an online convenience sample in the role of deciding whom to admit as part of a university race quota, the results indicate (1) that while economic class dominates other considerations in quota targeting, racial factors still matter; (2) the public places a large premium on indicators of merit; and (3) that these preferences are largely homogeneous across racial groups and resistant to priming.
Tellez, J.F. and Balcells, L., 2025. Social cohesion, economic security, and forced displacement in the long-run: Evidence from rural Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 69(1), pp.46-73.
Abstract
Millions of people around the world are internally displaced. And yet – compared to other forms of wartime victimization – scholars know relatively little about the longrun consequences of displacement for victims. This gap in the literature is problematic since displacement is distinct from other forms of victimization, and because IDPs face unique challenges in post-conflict transitions. This study contributes to the literature on the effects of displacement in three ways. First, the study brings to bear a unique sample of households in Colombia that is largely homogeneous along key confounders – mostly poor, rural, and conflict-afflicted – yet varies in their exposure to displacement. Next, the study draws on a rich set of covariates and outcomes to provide plausible estimates on the long-run effects of internal displacement. The study finds that a decade or more after displacement, victims experience substantial negative welfare deficits yet exhibit higher levels of social cohesion than their counterparts. Finally, combining a prediction framework with key stakeholder interviews, the study explores variation in outcomes among victims, particularly why some can return home and seek reparations while others are not. The results reveal a wide assortment of consequences resulting from displacement and should help inform policy-making bearing on support for internally displaced people.
La Viña, E.A.B. and Ravanilla, N., 2025. The Endurance and Erosion of Support for Mano Dura: Electoral Evidence from the War on Drugs in the Philippines. IGCC Working Papers, 2025.
Abstract
Why does public support for mano dura policies, once implemented, either sustain or erode? This study examines the Philippine war on drugs. Using municipal-level vote shares from the 2019 elections—three years into Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency—we measure support for mano dura by analyzing votes for senatorial candidates who backed or opposed the drug war. Pairing this data with municipal-level crime and violence reports from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED) and police blotters, we construct a panel of candidate-municipality observations and employ fixed effects for candidates and municipalities to identify the effects of targeted crimes and state violence on public support. We find that increases in targeted crimes, particularly drug-related offenses, bolster public support for mano dura, while state violence, especially by police, erodes it. These findings reveal a fragile balance between public safety concerns and the costs of repressive governance.
Abstract
Experiments are a powerful method to test for causal relationships implied by theory and assess whether policy interventions are effective. In the last 15 years, the literature on political institutions has been at the forefront of advances in experimental methods. In this chapter, we review two broad categories of experiments that have been used to study political institutions. First, we discuss experiments designed to measure institutions, including audit and survey experiments. Second, we consider experiments designed to test their effects, including nudging and recruitment experiments, experiments that subject institutions to new conditions, such as increased transparency or information, and experiments that modify institutional rules or introduce new institutions at the local level. We argue that there is currently a significant opportunity for existing experimental designs to be applied to new contexts, and for knowledge to be aggregated across experiments to better understand how the same treatments work in different conditions.
LeBas, A. and Young, L.E., 2024. Repression and dissent in moments of uncertainty: Panel data evidence from Zimbabwe. American Political Science Review, 118(2), pp.584-601.
Abstract
State repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, which we view as a moment of uncertainty for most Zimbabwean citizens. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we estimate change in individual protest intentions following exposure to repression and dissent and we assess three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive responses. We find evidence that exposure to local repression and dissent are mobilizing among opposition supporters and nonpartisans. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the effects of exposure to dissent may be driven by information updating, whereas relational and emotional mechanisms seem to drive backlash against repression, despite increased perceptions of risk. We find no evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and little effect of exposure to contentious events over social media.
Dow, D. A., Levy, G., Romero, D., & Tellez, J. F. (2024). State Absence, Vengeance, and the Logic of Vigilantism in Guatemala. Comparative Political Studies, 57(1), 147-181.
Abstract
Across the world, citizens sidestep the state to punish offenses on their own. Such vigilantism can help communities provide order, yet it raises concerns about public accountability and the rights of the accused. While prior research has identified the structural correlates of vigilantism, an open question is in which cases citizens prefer vigilantism over conventional policing. To make sense of these preferences, we draw on two logics of punishment: state substitution and retribution. Using survey data from a conjoint experiment presented to over 9000 households across Guatemala, we find that preferences for vigilantism depend on how transgressive the crime is as well as how unlikely it is to be prosecuted by the state. Victim and perpetrator gender, as well as crime severity and profession of the perpetrator, affect whether people endorse vigilante punishment. These results ultimately raise concerns about the viability of “informal” forms of policing.
Myers, E., Sacks, A., Tellez, J. F., & Wibbels, E. (2024). Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies. World Development, 173, 106416.
Abstract
Millions of people around the world are forcibly displaced. One consequence of displacement is that it brings large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons into contact with members of ‘host’ communities with whom they might otherwise have little opportunity to interact. Such contact has the capacity to transform social and economic life among both host communities and forcibly displaced persons, yet we have relatively scant evidence of how communities change in response to displacement. In this Special Issue Introductory Essay, we provide an overview of forced displacement as a phenomenon and review the state of knowledge on displacement and social cohesion. We then synthesize findings from nine new studies included in this issue, which bring forth new evidence from over 30 countries across the globe. We conclude with implications for policy and development efforts.